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Introduction

Throughout human history, grand methods have emerged as influential approaches in times of war and conflicts, with varying degrees of success. In his enlightening 2018 book, On Grand Strategy, esteemed historian John Lewis Gaddis delves into pivotal historical eras shaped by lofty political and religious ideals. Drawing insights from the brilliant strategists who pioneered these methods, including figures like Queen Elizabeth I, Sun Tzu, Leo Tolstoy, and St. Augustine, Gaddis offers profound lessons that continue to resonate with us today. By studying the wisdom and experiences of these remarkable individuals, we gain invaluable perspectives on the complex dynamics of grand strategy in shaping the course of human events.

Chapter One: Alignment in Grand Strategy: Striking a Balance

Human decision-making often involves navigating unexpected situations and adapting to obstacles encountered while pursuing shared objectives. This balance is commonly referred to as common sense. While not everyone possesses equal agility in this regard, most individuals possess both a sense of long-term direction and short-term awareness. Psychologist Daniel Kahneman attributes this duality to unintentional employment of two distinct modes of thinking.

Quick, emotionally-driven, and impulsive thinking guides swift actions, enabling us to avoid collisions and respond rapidly to our surroundings. Conversely, deliberate and logical thought primarily serves as a means of acquiring knowledge, often not immediately translating into action. This ability to switch between fast and slow thinking is vital to our existence.

In the realm of grand strategy, common sense plays a crucial role in balancing limited resources with boundless ambitions. Overreaching beyond available resources necessitates later cutbacks to align with reality. While expanding means may achieve more objectives, there will always be an inherent limitation due to the infinite nature of ends and finite nature of means. Successfully bridging the gap between aspirations and reality is crucial in formulating effective plans. The term “grand” emphasizes the significance of such endeavors, which inevitably expand as strategies develop.

Historically, grand plans have been closely associated with military contexts, evident from the earliest known connection between abilities and desires during the siege of Troy. However, the concept of grand strategy extends beyond warfare and finds application in diverse domains.

Ultimately, achieving alignment in grand strategy requires astute assessment of available resources, thoughtful planning, and constant adaptation to the ever-changing landscape. By striking this delicate balance, one can navigate complex challenges and pursue meaningful goals with measured ambition and wisdom.

Chapter Two: American Strategy in Vietnam: A Complex and Challenging Conflict

During the Vietnam War, the United States deployed a massive military force of 543,000 troops to defend a small peninsula on a vast continent, as American diplomat Henry Kissinger later characterized it, drawing an analogy to the Peloponnesian War of ancient times. The conflict spanned nearly 2,300 years, culminating in South Vietnam’s eventual surrender in 1975. Tragically, over 58,000 American soldiers lost their lives defending South Vietnam, making it the fourth deadliest conflict in US history and the first overt military defeat for the nation.

In contrast to many proxy wars of the era, the Vietnam War was driven by North Vietnamese leadership, with sporadic and reluctant support from China and the Soviet Union. The decision to initiate, manage, and conclude the conflict lay primarily with Hanoi. Interestingly, both China and the Soviet Union sought rapprochement with the US during the 1960s, fearing the escalation of conflicts between themselves.

Simultaneously, significant global changes were unfolding. The USSR flexed its strategic muscle in defeating the 1968 Prague Spring, an attempt to reform Marxism-Leninism. The Middle East was shaken by Israel’s victorious 1967 military campaign against Arab adversaries and its subsequent occupation of the West Bank. France began withdrawing its military from NATO in 1966, while East and West Germany established diplomatic relations. China, on the other hand, experienced the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution.

Amid these shifts, the question arises: why did the US show such intense interest in Vietnam when its global stakes were significant elsewhere? President John F. Kennedy staunchly declared that without the United States, South Vietnam would crumble, and allies of the US faced threats worldwide. For Kennedy, America represented the cornerstone of freedom, compelling the nation to confront its enemies through any means necessary.

Throughout the war, walls were erected to distinguish vital concerns from less significant ones. As ambiguities and challenges tore down these barriers, concerns transformed into powerful images, as exemplified by Kennedy’s unwavering determination to never back down. However, over time, these images became blurred projections, losing their clarity and becoming indistinct.

The Vietnam War remains a complex and compelling chapter in American history, marked by its significant human toll and the lessons learned about the complexities of grand strategy and the challenges of defining and protecting vital interests.

Chapter Three: Sun Tzu’s Wisdom of Tethering

Throughout history, numerous lenders and borrowers have fallen into the trap of buying high and selling low, driven by emotions that clouded their judgment. However, Sun Tzu, the revered Chinese philosopher and military strategist, found his principles firmly anchored in clarity and truth. By brilliantly connecting the obvious with the obscure, he elucidated how states could triumph in wars without losing their essence.

Sun Tzu acknowledges that no one can truly predict the future, but he emphasizes the importance of sensing possibilities rather than succumbing to uncertainty. As a skilled general and seeker of wisdom, he fused a select few concepts with a myriad of practices, creating a harmonious blend like mixing colors on a canvas, tailored to the present situation. While making strategic choices, he remained unwaveringly focused, projecting conflicting ideas over time, space, and scale, yet retaining a cohesive vision in his mind.

In his seminal work, The Art of War, Sun Tzu delves into the essence of leadership, seeing simplicity amid complexity. While certain facts may be easy to grasp individually, their compounded nature brings forth intricate challenges. However, Sun Tzu suggests that fundamental beliefs act as guiding anchors, preventing us from being paralyzed by the unpredictability of events. Tethering our decisions to core principles enables us to adapt and respond effectively to surprises.

Learning the art of tethering involves emulating the behaviors of exceptional teachers, who inspire us to embody this approach. By honing this skill, we gain the ability to navigate uncertainty with composure and wisdom, just as Sun Tzu illuminated the path to strategic success through the lens of tethered wisdom.

Chapter Four: St. Augustine’s Wisdom of Polarities

The roots of every major faith stem from a fear of the unknown, a realm beyond human comprehension. In the era of polytheistic beliefs, coexistence among various gods was maintained through constant conflicts, and the state faced little challenge in managing diverse faiths. The Romans, adept at making and discarding gods, navigated this balance with finesse.

St. Augustine’s beliefs revolved around the delicate allegiance owed to both God and Caesar. He emphasized that humanity’s path to eternal life hinged on striking a balance between these two realms. Yet, both God’s judgments and Caesar’s demands acknowledged the unpredictability and certainty inherent in life. While God may be omniscient and unaffected by the unexpected, human beings must confront the unknown due to the gift of free will granted by God. This gift, a blessing or a curse, comes with the burden of dealing with the consequences of original sin. Nevertheless, Augustine found hope within this struggle.

Augmenting his brilliance, Augustine focused on the tensions between polarities rather than solely their origins. He contemplated the dichotomy of law versus justice, conflict versus peace, and God versus Caesar. These polarities were akin to gravitational forces, pulling human decisions between the opposing forces of free will. However, no guiding principle prescribes a definitive path for this will to follow. Augustine’s doctrines, therefore, are not absolute but rather procedural. While one can strive for ideals, reality inevitably falls short.

Augustine reached the profound realization that sometimes war, when necessary to save a nation, may be less harmful than pursuing peace. But he pondered the question: Why do conflicts arise in the first place? Wars, according to Augustine, must align with God’s will, as they are a reflection of human sinfulness and God’s all-encompassing power. The connection between alignment and dependency is evident in his perspective, wherein battles may be required to bring about peace. The key, Augustine believed, lies in proportionality—the means employed must be in harmony with the end purpose, much like the interconnectedness of Sun Tzu’s actions and concepts.

For Augustine, this is the pivot—a logic of action independent of context, time, space, culture, and the distinction between sinners and saints. It upholds justice and order, ensuring that the means utilized align with the greater purpose. Through the wisdom of polarities, St. Augustine sought to navigate the complexities of life’s uncertainties and find harmony in the tension between opposing forces.

Chapter Five: The Indecisive Reign of Queen Elizabeth I

Queen Elizabeth I put not only her courtiers and advisors but also God to the test, not in matters of Catholic universalism, but for the sake of English nationalism. From the moment she ascended to the throne, she was faced with incessant pressures to make crucial choices—embracing Protestantism or Catholicism, engaging in costly wars in Ireland, the Netherlands, and Belgium, and deciding whether to marry or remain single. Yet, in every circumstance, Elizabeth remained in a state of indecision.

This apparent ambivalence was neither the ideal nor the worst course of action. Rather, Elizabeth purposefully chose to dither as a strategic approach. She understood the potential dangers of displaying excessive decisiveness and accuracy in politics. Instead, her indecision served as a means to remind her courtiers and counselors of their place and to thwart suitors and adversaries alike. Decisiveness and accuracy might have trapped her in difficult situations, so she carefully navigated the political landscape with her enigmatic approach.

Elizabeth proposed the idea that a virgin queen could be the savior of a country, establishing a new legacy and governing as a woman. These novel opportunities were a source of great joy for Elizabeth, and she skillfully used them to her advantage. Her reign was marked by an intricate dance between calculated uncertainty and strategic positioning, allowing her to maintain power and control over her court and adversaries.

In the end, Elizabeth’s reign proved that a ruler need not always make swift and definitive decisions to be effective. Her legacy as the “Virgin Queen” continues to be a testament to her ability to wield power through the art of dithering and deliberate ambiguity, guiding her nation through a transformative era with skill and grace.

Chapter Six: The Impact of 1588: Shaping the Americas

The resounding events of 1588, which reverberated across the English Channel, had far-reaching consequences that shook the world. Portugal and Spain, fueled by a new understanding of winds, sails, currents, and ships, had spent the previous century exploring and conquering distant lands, surpassing the boundaries of the old Eurasian continent that had been the cradle of past civilizations.

Fast forward two hundred thirty-five years, and a bold proclamation was drafted by a Protestant statesman. The American continents, having asserted and maintained their freedom and sovereignty, were deemed no longer open for European colonization. This declaration, announced in 1823 as the Monroe Doctrine by Secretary of State John Quincy Adams, reflected the growing strength of the United States of America. Although the young nation lacked the resources to protect the New World from its former rulers, it managed to secure Spain’s confidence during its most prosperous period, proving to be sufficient.

The destruction of the Spanish Armada made the American continent more accessible to northern European invasion and colonization, ultimately paving the way for the establishment of the United States. By the 1750s, Spanish America boasted over six times the wealth and was significantly larger and more populous than its northern counterpart. Comparable to the Romans in terms of size, infrastructure, and customs, Spanish America presented a formidable challenge.

However, the English steadily and determinedly increased their influence, especially in North America. Their focused intellect and assertive approach led to a republican revolutionary transfer of power during crises, rather than the collapse of their colonial presence. This set a powerful precedent that would undermine empires worldwide over the next two centuries.

In this way, the events of 1588 and the subsequent developments shaped the course of history in the Americas, leaving a lasting impact on the nations and peoples of the New World and influencing the trajectory of global affairs.

Chapter Seven: Proportionality and Tolstoy’s Strategic Insights

Leo Tolstoy, renowned as a writer and philosopher, delved into the concept of inescapable interdependence, where everything is interconnected beyond distance, time, and scale. This intricate interconnectedness implies the presence of unknowns that cannot be neatly divided into separate parts; breaking them down would only yield smaller fragments. As humans, we perceive agency even in the subtlest aspects of life due to what we don’t fully comprehend. While laws may govern infinitesimals, they have minimal impact on our tangible world, where we perceive and experience freedom.

In the realm of strategy, theory and practice are deeply intertwined. Theory aids practical application by breaking down the complexities of history into teachable moments, while practice repays the favor by refining and correcting theory. This process of drafting strategy is known as net assessment, a comprehensive evaluation of various factors that can influence outcomes. It considers known elements like climate, topography, geography, objectives, and capabilities, as well as probabilities such as the reliability of allies, a nation’s resilience, adversary objectives, and an acceptance of unknowns. When overstretch and a confusion of means and aims occur, adversaries may resort to the leverage strategy—employing small actions with significant repercussions.

Tolstoy’s brilliance as a strategist lies in his simultaneous awareness of contradictions, which he termed proportionality. It involves balancing opposites, such as improvisation and training, friction and planning, force and forcefulness, sketching and scenarios, generalization and specialization, idleness and action, death and life, and defeat and victory. With enormous imagination, honesty, and breadth of vision, Tolstoy tackled these themes, earning him a place as one of history’s greatest strategists.

In essence, Tolstoy’s insights illuminate the complexity of strategy, highlighting the intricate web of interconnected factors and the importance of striking a balance between seemingly contradictory elements. His wisdom continues to resonate and offer valuable lessons for those navigating the intricate world of strategy and decision-making.

Chapter Eight: Lincoln’s Unique Strategy

President Abraham Lincoln‘s distinctive presence set him apart, not for his appearance but for his lack of concern about it. With lengthy arms and large hands, he moved with a sense of humility while exuding a powerful aura. He recognized that his unmistakable presence would always draw attention, so he used it to make a difference and earn respect. Employing humor and storytelling, he honed his performances, captivating audiences and even eliciting laughter from animals. Beneath this veneer of humor, however, lay a deep sense of fatalism, perhaps influenced by his early experiences or the tragic loss of two of his children.

A voracious reader, Lincoln absorbed knowledge and skillfully applied the lessons he learned. His rhetorical abilities, honed during his transition from law to politics, helped him champion causes, set a moral compass, and chart a course. For him, the emancipation of slaves presented a historic opportunity for the confiscation of private property, while war powers held the potential to redefine the boundaries of the Constitution.

In his understanding of God’s will, Lincoln shared a connection with Tolstoy, who believed in the incomprehensible laws governing history. Lincoln saw divine forces at play in natural processes, suggesting that he was more influenced by the world around him rather than imposing his will upon it. This alignment with the workings of the universe resonated with Tolstoy and humanity as a whole.

Lincoln’s strategy was not just about making decisions but about embracing his unique qualities and using them to achieve his goals. He blended humility and strength, humor and purpose, and a recognition of larger forces at play to navigate the challenging landscape of his time. It is this distinct approach that secured his place as a remarkable leader and a pivotal figure in history.

Chapter Nine: FDR: A Complex Leader

President Franklin D. Roosevelt was a captivating and dynamic figure, admired for his charm, intelligence, and audacity. However, he was not without flaws, and critics accused him of carelessness, dishonesty, and ignorance. Despite these shortcomings, Roosevelt possessed exceptional qualities that inspired and motivated those around him. He had a compassionate heart, a broad understanding of politics, and a profound awareness of the transformative forces shaping the twentieth century, including racism, imperialism, technology, and anti-imperialism. His leadership emphasized fulfilling human desires, promoting mobility, and embracing life.

Fearless and unafraid of the future, Roosevelt was an extraordinary leader who keenly understood human behavior, emotions, and historical events. He had a remarkable ability to absorb subtle impressions and derive meaning from minute details, making his subjects feel understood and valued. Under his guidance, the nation’s pride in its citizens soared, as he instilled a positive self-perception and a heightened sense of global significance.

Roosevelt challenged traditional notions of power and authority, showing that doctrine could be built on individual liberty and effective governance. His blend of charisma and strategic leadership brought about a sense of unity and hope during turbulent times. FDR’s unique understanding of human desires and the complexities of his era cemented his legacy as a transformative and influential leader in American history.

Chapter Ten: Navigating Contradictions in Strategy

In the realm of fair transactions, a fundamental principle is that goods purchased should align reasonably with the price paid. This notion extends to the domain of grand strategy, where proportionality plays a vital role. Grand strategy seeks to strike a balance between constrained capabilities and potentially boundless objectives. However, the pursuit of fairness introduces a twist in the form of negative liberty, where policy replaces outright conflict. Augustine’s aspiration to make war just and Sun Tzu’s acknowledgement that the dead cannot be brought back to life and a fallen state cannot be restored underscore the complexities of this endeavor.

The greatest contradiction we encounter, whether in spirit or intellect, transcends time and context—the contrast between the dead and the living. Despite this contradiction, all individuals warrant respect, for each treads the precarious tightrope of existence. Balancing these contradictions, embracing proportionality, and striving for justness are essential aspects of formulating effective strategies that navigate the complexities of the human experience.

 

Author’s Style

John Lewis Gaddis’ writing exhibits intricacy and, at times, presents challenges to readers. Assembled from various lectures, his book, On Grand Strategy, occasionally suffers from a lack of consistency, coherence, and precision, resulting in weaker, unclear, or seemingly unimportant sections. While the subsequent chapters may become dry, the initial chapter provides an intriguing and captivating start.

About the author

John Lewis Gaddis is a distinguished American international relations specialist, scholar, and accomplished writer. In recognition of his remarkable achievements, he was honored with the prestigious Pulitzer Prize for Biography in 2012. Alongside esteemed colleagues Charles Hill and Paul Kennedy, Gaddis is renowned as a prominent Cold War historian, leveraging his expertise to teach grand strategy at Yale University for nearly two decades. Gaddis’s wealth of experience and knowledge is eloquently captured in his seminal work, On Grand Strategy, where he shares the invaluable lessons garnered throughout his illustrious career.

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